MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (44) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Low explanatory power (R² 0.09) — the factor model explains little of this stock's return variation, so these exposures are noisy. Interpret with caution.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $70M— | $95M+34.3% | $8M-92.0% | $18M+145.3% | $88M+376.6% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-2.80— | $-4.33n/m | $-5.45n/m | $-5.26n/m | $-6.54n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | -$191M— | -$311Mn/m | -$416Mn/m | -$400Mn/m | -$535Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | -127.1% | -154.6%-27.5pp | -4284.1%-4129.5pp | -1737.2%+2546.9pp | 88.5%+1825.7pp |
| Operating Margin | -264.5% | -342.8%-78.2pp | -6589.7%-6247.0pp | -2902.7%+3687.0pp | -695.4%+2207.3pp |
| Net Margin | -305.7% | -411.2%-105.5pp | -6988.6%-6577.4pp | -3191.1%+3797.5pp | -891.6%+2299.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $114 (last qtr, 8 analysts) → $119 (last mo, 2) (+4.4%).
Buy-rated share 85% → 86% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $-1.67 | $-1.67 | +0.0% |
| Feb 2026 | $-1.48 | $-1.50 | -1.4% |
| Nov 2025 | $-1.59 | $-1.54 | +3.1% |
| Aug 2025 | $-1.34 | $-1.12 | +16.4% |
| May 2025 | $-1.41 | $-1.36 | +3.5% |
| Feb 2025 | $-1.29 | $-1.26 | +2.3% |
| Nov 2024 | $-1.27 | $-1.36 | -7.1% |
| Aug 2024 | $-1.02 | $-1.31 | -28.4% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$17.9M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 34 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 44 for Cytokinetics indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a divergence between its long-term and short-term scores. The stock scores high on momentum, with a 12-month return of 148.2% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average trend, but is dragged down by its low value score due to negative earnings and cash flow metrics. The growth category also exhibits a mixed picture, with strong revenue growth of 376.6% but negative EPS and free cash flow growth. The significant gap between the long-term and short-term scores, with the latter being 18 points higher, suggests a potential disconnect between the stock's recent performance and its underlying fundamentals.