MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (50) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $338 (last qtr, 12 analysts) → $331 (last mo, 5) (-2.0%).
Buy-rated share 85% → 83% over ~3 months (-1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $7.60 | $7.78 | +2.4% |
| Apr 2026 | $7.60 | $7.79 | +2.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $7.88 | $8.08 | +2.5% |
| Oct 2025 | $7.64 | $7.83 | +2.5% |
| Jul 2025 | $7.16 | $7.20 | +0.6% |
| May 2025 | $6.35 | $6.74 | +6.1% |
| Jan 2025 | $7.84 | $6.64 | -15.3% |
| Oct 2024 | $7.23 | $7.51 | +3.9% |
Net insider -$65.9M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 17 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 4.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $9.2B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $8.4B) · equity value $73.6B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $174.1B— | $180.5B+3.7% | $195.3B+8.2% | $247.1B+26.6% | $275.0B+11.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $15.75— | $21.41+35.9% | $17.39-18.8% | $12.12-30.3% | $22.17+82.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.0B— | $7.4B+21.9% | $10.2B+39.1% | $9.0B-12.5% | $8.4B-6.3% |
| Gross Margin | 13.2% | 13.0%-0.2pp | 12.9%-0.1pp | 10.5%-2.4pp | 9.5%-1.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 4.6% | 4.7%+0.1pp | 4.4%-0.3pp | 3.8%-0.6pp | 3.3%-0.5pp |
| Net Margin | 3.1% | 3.7%+0.6pp | 2.6%-1.1pp | 1.4%-1.3pp | 2.2%+0.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
The QScore of 50 for CI indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of positive and negative factors. The stock scores high on value, with a P/E of 11.5 and EV/EBITDA of 8.4, but exhibits weaker momentum, with a 12-month return of -0.4% and a recent 3-month decline of -7.1%. The long-term and short-term scores diverge slightly, with the long-term score at 52 and the short-term score at 48, suggesting some near-term challenges. Overall, CI's strong profitability, with an ROE of 15.2%, is offset by its lackluster growth and momentum.