MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (44) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Low explanatory power (R² 0.10) — the factor model explains little of this stock's return variation, so these exposures are noisy. Interpret with caution.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Avg target $272 (last qtr, 17 analysts) → $380 (last mo, 1) (+39.6%).
Buy-rated share 95% → 95% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $-0.85 | $-1.26 | -48.2% |
| Feb 2026 | $-0.70 | $-0.71 | -1.4% |
| Nov 2025 | $-0.82 | $-0.94 | -14.6% |
| Aug 2025 | $-1.00 | $-0.92 | +8.0% |
| May 2025 | $-1.26 | $-0.80 | +36.5% |
| Feb 2025 | $-1.00 | $-0.96 | +4.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $-1.38 | $-1.34 | +2.9% |
| Aug 2024 | $-1.30 | $-1.24 | +4.6% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0— | $50Mn/m | $271M+440.8% | $386M+42.5% | $638M+65.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-3.47— | $-4.60n/m | $-5.27n/m | $-5.99n/m | $-3.68n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | -$109M— | -$117Mn/m | -$146Mn/m | -$129Mn/m | -$94Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | — | 89.6% | 90.4%+0.8pp | 91.4%+1.0pp | 92.6%+1.2pp |
| Operating Margin | — | -359.3% | -85.7%+273.7pp | -72.7%+12.9pp | -26.5%+46.2pp |
| Net Margin | — | -374.0% | -88.4%+285.6pp | -74.5%+13.9pp | -28.7%+45.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$70.1M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 21 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 44 for Axsome Therapeutics indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a divergence between its long-term and short-term scores. The stock scores high on momentum, with a 12-month return of 135.1%, and growth, driven by 65.5% revenue growth. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/B of 226.2, and exhibits weak profitability, with an ROE of -260.0%, pulling its overall score down. The short-term score is notably higher than the long-term score, suggesting recent strength may not be sustainable.