MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (51) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Avg target $79 (last qtr, 3 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 75% → 85% over ~3 months (+10pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $-1.09 | $-0.93 | +14.7% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.60 | $0.22 | -63.3% |
| Nov 2025 | $-0.11 | $-0.18 | -61.3% |
| Aug 2025 | $-0.94 | $-1.26 | -34.0% |
| May 2025 | $-0.06 | $2.75 | +4683.3% |
| Feb 2025 | $-0.42 | $-1.39 | -231.0% |
| Nov 2024 | $-1.05 | $-1.38 | -31.4% |
| Aug 2024 | $-0.58 | $-1.38 | -137.9% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $138M— | $243M+75.9% | $241M-1.0% | $4M-98.5% | $829M+23258.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-1.36— | $-1.67n/m | $-1.92n/m | $-5.00n/m | $-0.01n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $148M— | -$189M-227.9% | -$331Mn/m | -$604Mn/m | $157Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 100.0% | 95.7%-4.3pp | 94.8%-0.9pp | -423.7%-518.5pp | 100.0%+523.7pp |
| Operating Margin | -107.8% | -73.4%+34.4pp | -85.2%-11.8pp | -16927.1%-16841.9pp | 11.9%+16938.9pp |
| Net Margin | -101.9% | -72.4%+29.5pp | -85.3%-12.9pp | -16882.4%-16797.1pp | -0.2%+16882.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$9.1M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 27 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
The QScore of 51 for ARWR suggests a neutral outlook, driven by strong growth and momentum scores, which are offset by lower value and profitability scores. The stock's growth score is high, driven by exceptional revenue and EPS growth, and it exhibits strong momentum with a 12-month return of over 400%. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/B of 18.7 and negative earnings metrics, such as an ROE of -55.4%, contributing to its low value score. The long-term and short-term scores diverge, with the short-term score being 16 points higher, indicating a recent surge in performance.