MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Avg target $234 (last qtr, 4 analysts) → $225 (last mo, 3) (-3.7%).
Buy-rated share 40% → 50% over ~3 months (+10pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $4.59 | $5.45 | +18.7% |
| May 2026 | $2.92 | $5.22 | +78.8% |
| Feb 2026 | $3.55 | $4.39 | +23.7% |
| Oct 2025 | $2.28 | $2.41 | +5.7% |
| Jul 2025 | $2.03 | $2.43 | +19.7% |
| May 2025 | $1.47 | $1.80 | +22.4% |
| Feb 2025 | $2.80 | $2.97 | +6.1% |
| Oct 2024 | $2.22 | $2.38 | +7.2% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34.5B— | $37.1B+7.7% | $33.1B-10.8% | $27.9B-15.7% | $30.9B+10.5% |
| EPS (dil.) | $15.10— | $21.80+44.4% | $15.84-27.3% | $7.29-54.0% | $10.93+49.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $336M— | -$112M-133.3% | $622Mn/m | $1.0B+66.8% | -$37M-103.6% |
| Gross Margin | 12.2% | 13.0%+0.8pp | 12.5%-0.5pp | 11.8%-0.7pp | 11.2%-0.6pp |
| Operating Margin | 4.5% | 5.6%+1.1pp | 4.4%-1.1pp | 2.8%-1.7pp | 3.0%+0.3pp |
| Net Margin | 3.2% | 3.8%+0.6pp | 2.7%-1.1pp | 1.4%-1.3pp | 1.9%+0.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$5.9M over 180 days (1 open-market buys, 6 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 12.4%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $541M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year -$37M) · equity value $10.8B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
The QScore of 54 indicates a neutral outlook for ARW, with the long-term and short-term scores closely aligned. The stock scores high on value, trading at a P/E of 13.3 and P/B of 1.5, but is dragged down by its growth score, which is negatively impacted by a decline in free cash flow growth. ARW exhibits strong momentum, with a 12-month return of 70.7%, and its risk profile is relatively favorable, with a beta of 1.2 and moderate volatility.