MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (49) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.1B— | $25.8B+11.8% | $26.5B+2.8% | $27.2B+2.5% | $28.4B+4.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $6.40— | $7.44+16.3% | $8.11+9.0% | $8.61+6.2% | $8.66+0.6% |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B— | $4.6B-3.4% | $7.6B+64.7% | $7.5B-1.4% | $5.7B-23.9% |
| Gross Margin | 47.3% | 46.5%-0.8pp | 46.7%+0.2pp | 47.5%+0.8pp | 48.7%+1.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 29.9% | 30.2%+0.3pp | 28.9%-1.3pp | 28.9%+0.1pp | 29.2%+0.3pp |
| Net Margin | 25.5% | 25.3%-0.2pp | 25.9%+0.5pp | 26.4%+0.6pp | 24.7%-1.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 23.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $6.9B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $5.7B) · equity value $305.2B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$174.1M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 37 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $637 avg across 14 analysts.
Buy-rated share 80% → 83% over ~3 months (+3pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $3.40 | $3.50 | +2.9% |
| May 2026 | $2.68 | $2.86 | +6.7% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.21 | $2.38 | +7.7% |
| Dec 2025 | $2.11 | $2.17 | +2.8% |
| Aug 2025 | $2.36 | $2.48 | +5.1% |
| May 2025 | $2.31 | $2.39 | +3.5% |
| Feb 2025 | $2.28 | $2.38 | +4.4% |
| Nov 2024 | $2.19 | $2.32 | +5.9% |
The QScore of 49 for Applied Materials indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a mix of factors. The stock scores high on profitability, with a notable ROE of 40.4%, but is held back by weaker growth metrics, including a decline in free cash flow. The value category is middling, with the stock trading at a P/E of 33.0, while momentum is marked by a strong 12-month return of 63.2%, albeit with a recent pullback. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's prospects.