MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (56) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.4B— | $2.8B+15.3% | $3.0B+9.6% | $3.2B+6.3% | $3.0B-6.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $4.13— | $5.53+33.9% | $7.40+33.8% | $8.31+12.3% | $7.33-11.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | $460M— | $490M+6.5% | $659M+34.5% | $658M-0.2% | $649M-1.4% |
| Gross Margin | 47.7% | 46.8%-0.8pp | 48.4%+1.6pp | 47.4%-1.0pp | 48.4%+1.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 27.9% | 28.3%+0.5pp | 30.3%+2.0pp | 30.8%+0.5pp | 32.3%+1.6pp |
| Net Margin | 18.4% | 19.2%+0.8pp | 22.2%+3.0pp | 22.7%+0.5pp | 20.7%-2.0pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$317K over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 2 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $126 (last qtr, 1 analysts) → $0 (last mo, 0) (-100.0%).
Buy-rated share 30% → 36% over ~3 months (+6pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | $2.07 | $1.33 | -35.7% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.56 | $1.18 | -24.4% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.95 | $1.63 | -16.4% |
| Aug 2025 | $2.20 | $2.29 | +4.1% |
| May 2025 | $2.05 | $2.23 | +8.8% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.90 | $2.01 | +5.8% |
| Oct 2024 | $2.02 | $2.27 | +12.4% |
| Jul 2024 | $2.02 | $2.13 | +5.4% |
The QScore of 56 for ALSN suggests a neutral outlook, driven by strong profitability and low risk, which scores high on ROE near 30% and a beta of 0.9. However, the stock's growth prospects are a concern, with revenue and EPS growth in negative territory. Momentum exhibits strong performance, with a 29% return over the past year, while value scores are moderate, with a P/E of 18.6, indicating the stock trades at a reasonable multiple.