MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (40) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-09-20.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $490M— | $516M+5.3% | $619M+19.8% | $611M-1.3% | $643M+5.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $-0.53— | $-1.46n/m | $-2.18n/m | $-1.52n/m | $-0.35n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | -$123M— | -$165Mn/m | -$65Mn/m | -$6Mn/m | $130Mn/m |
| Gross Margin | 84.9% | 76.7%-8.2pp | 66.2%-10.5pp | 67.9%+1.7pp | 69.1%+1.2pp |
| Operating Margin | -10.8% | -32.5%-21.7pp | -42.9%-10.4pp | -31.9%+11.0pp | -17.2%+14.6pp |
| Net Margin | -11.9% | -32.1%-20.3pp | -41.2%-9.1pp | -29.9%+11.3pp | -6.8%+23.1pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Avg target $74 (last qtr, 14 analysts) → $88 (last mo, 4) (+18.9%).
Buy-rated share 38% → 37% over ~3 months (-1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $-0.24 | $-0.14 | +42.4% |
| May 2026 | $-0.29 | $-0.10 | +65.5% |
| Feb 2026 | $-0.19 | $-0.13 | +31.6% |
| Nov 2025 | $-0.07 | $-0.22 | -214.3% |
| Aug 2025 | $-0.35 | $0.28 | +180.0% |
| May 2025 | $-0.45 | $-0.36 | +20.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $-0.29 | $-0.40 | -37.9% |
| Oct 2024 | $-0.34 | $-0.30 | +11.8% |
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 10.5%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $20M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $130M) · equity value $9.1B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$14.8M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 38 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 40 for TXG indicates a neutral outlook, driven by a divergence between its long-term and short-term scores. The stock scores high on growth and momentum, with revenue growth of 5.2% and a 12-month return of 443.5%, but is held back by poor value and risk scores, trading at a significant premium with a P/E of -118.8 and exhibiting high volatility. The short-term score is 10 points higher than the long-term score, suggesting recent strength.