MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (54) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $52 (last qtr, 10 analysts) → $52 (last mo, 5) (+0.8%).
Buy-rated share 50% → 42% over ~3 months (-8pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $0.85 | $0.91 | +6.7% |
| May 2026 | $0.77 | $0.87 | +13.7% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.77 | $0.94 | +22.1% |
| Nov 2025 | $0.69 | $0.78 | +13.9% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.65 | $0.75 | +15.4% |
| May 2025 | $0.36 | $0.62 | +73.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.51 | $0.55 | +7.8% |
| Oct 2024 | $0.35 | $0.40 | +14.3% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B— | $1.6B+12.3% | $1.8B+13.6% | $2.2B+18.5% | $2.3B+7.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.72— | $0.56-22.2% | $0.65+16.1% | $1.76+170.8% | $2.78+58.0% |
| Free Cash Flow | $337M— | $224M-33.4% | $170M-24.0% | $634M+272.0% | $844M+33.2% |
| Gross Margin | 96.3% | 96.4%+0.1pp | 96.0%-0.4pp | 96.5%+0.4pp | 96.4%-0.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 20.0% | 12.5%-7.5pp | 9.3%-3.2pp | 27.9%+18.5pp | 37.6%+9.7pp |
| Net Margin | 16.1% | 11.3%-4.8pp | 11.4%+0.0pp | 24.0%+12.7pp | 33.7%+9.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$28.8M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 20 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 4.2%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $549M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $844M) · equity value $12.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 54 for Exelixis indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's strong profitability metrics, such as an ROE of 42.5%, driving the score up, while its growth and momentum categories, which are hindered by a recent 3-month decline of 1.4%, weigh it down. The stock trades at a P/E of 15.4, relatively in line with its peers. The long-term and short-term scores are relatively aligned, with only a 4-point difference, suggesting a consistent view of the stock's prospects. Exelixis exhibits strong profitability, with a gross margin near 97%.