MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (50) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Avg target $201 (last qtr, 21 analysts) → $202 (last mo, 14) (+0.6%).
Buy-rated share 86% → 85% over ~3 months (-1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $1.65 | $1.39 | -15.8% |
| May 2026 | $1.22 | $1.94 | +59.0% |
| Feb 2026 | $1.80 | $1.88 | +4.4% |
| Oct 2025 | $1.58 | $2.04 | +29.1% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.98 | $1.06 | +8.2% |
| May 2025 | $0.54 | $0.08 | -85.0% |
| Feb 2025 | $1.62 | $1.00 | -38.3% |
| Oct 2024 | $1.51 | $1.24 | -17.9% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B— | $1.5B+31.3% | $1.9B+26.8% | $2.4B+24.8% | $2.9B+21.4% |
| EPS (dil.) | $0.92— | $1.56+69.6% | $2.47+58.3% | $3.29+33.2% | $4.67+41.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $233M— | $323M+38.5% | $362M+12.0% | $557M+54.1% | $749M+34.4% |
| Gross Margin | 98.7% | 98.4%-0.3pp | 97.9%-0.5pp | 98.6%+0.7pp | 98.2%-0.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 9.0% | 16.7%+7.7pp | 13.3%-3.4pp | 24.2%+10.9pp | 21.6%-2.6pp |
| Net Margin | 7.9% | 10.4%+2.5pp | 13.2%+2.9pp | 14.5%+1.3pp | 16.7%+2.2pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$62.4M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 27 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 9.8%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $556M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $749M) · equity value $15.3B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 50 for Neurocrine Biosciences indicates a neutral outlook, with the stock's long-term and short-term scores diverging slightly, at 52 and 48, respectively. The company scores high on profitability, driven by its strong ROE of 21.1% and high gross margin of 98.0%. In contrast, momentum is a relative weakness, with the stock's 3-month return of -6.2% and low RSI of 29.0 contributing to the lower short-term score. The stock trades at a P/E of 21.5, which is relatively in line with its growth prospects, including revenue growth of 21.4% and EPS growth of 41.5%.