MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (52) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $1571 avg across 7 analysts.
Buy-rated share 50% → 33% over ~3 months (-17pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $10.85 | $11.46 | +5.6% |
| May 2026 | $8.71 | $8.91 | +2.3% |
| Feb 2026 | $12.80 | $13.36 | +4.4% |
| Nov 2025 | $10.66 | $11.15 | +4.6% |
| Jul 2025 | $9.60 | $10.09 | +5.1% |
| May 2025 | $7.88 | $8.19 | +3.9% |
| Feb 2025 | $11.72 | $12.41 | +5.9% |
| Nov 2024 | $10.01 | $10.21 | +2.0% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.7B— | $3.9B+5.4% | $3.8B-3.4% | $3.9B+2.2% | $4.0B+4.0% |
| EPS (dil.) | $32.78— | $38.41+17.2% | $35.90-6.5% | $40.48+12.8% | $42.05+3.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $801M— | $738M-7.9% | $861M+16.6% | $864M+0.5% | $849M-1.8% |
| Gross Margin | 56.7% | 57.2%+0.5pp | 57.3%+0.1pp | 58.2%+0.9pp | 59.4%+1.2pp |
| Operating Margin | 26.8% | 28.7%+2.0pp | 28.5%-0.2pp | 29.1%+0.6pp | 27.8%-1.3pp |
| Net Margin | 20.7% | 22.3%+1.6pp | 20.8%-1.4pp | 22.3%+1.5pp | 21.6%-0.7pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 4.9%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $858M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $849M) · equity value $33.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
Net insider -$6.1M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 52 for MTD indicates a neutral outlook, driven by strong momentum with a 12-month return of 20.4% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. However, the stock trades at a premium, scoring low on value with a P/E of 37.7 and a P/B of 2636.4. The long-term and short-term scores diverge, with the short-term score being 9 points higher, suggesting recent performance is outpacing long-term fundamentals, which exhibit moderate growth and profitability, with revenue growth of 4.0% and an operating margin of 28.4%.