MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (37) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.7B— | $18.9B+6.4% | $6.8B-63.7% | $3.2B-53.3% | $1.9B-39.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $28.29— | $20.10-29.0% | $-12.34-161.4% | $-9.27n/m | $-7.26n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $13.3B— | $4.6B-65.6% | -$3.8B-183.5% | -$4.1Bn/m | -$2.1Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 85.2% | 71.3%-13.9pp | 31.5%-39.8pp | 54.2%+22.8pp | 55.3%+1.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 75.0% | 49.9%-25.1pp | -61.9%-111.8pp | -123.3%-61.4pp | -158.1%-34.8pp |
| Net Margin | 68.8% | 44.3%-24.5pp | -68.8%-113.1pp | -111.3%-42.5pp | -145.2%-33.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net insider -$38.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 10 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $51 avg across 5 analysts.
Buy-rated share 16% → 17% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $-2.03 | $-1.97 | +3.0% |
| May 2026 | $-4.45 | $-3.40 | +23.6% |
| Feb 2026 | $-2.54 | $-2.11 | +16.9% |
| Nov 2025 | $-1.87 | $-0.51 | +72.7% |
| Aug 2025 | $-2.99 | $-2.13 | +28.8% |
| May 2025 | $-2.92 | $-2.52 | +13.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $-2.68 | $-2.50 | +6.7% |
| Nov 2024 | $-1.91 | $0.03 | +101.6% |
The QScore of 37 for MRNA indicates a relatively weak overall profile, driven down by low scores in Value and Profitability, with the latter exhibiting negative returns on equity and assets. In contrast, the stock scores high on Momentum, with a 12-month return of 149.9% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average. Notably, the long-term score of 28 diverges significantly from the short-term score of 45, suggesting a potential disconnect between the company's fundamental prospects and its recent price action. MRNA trades at a premium, with negative earnings multiples and a high price-to-sales ratio of 11.4.