MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (37) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $153 avg across 10 analysts.
Buy-rated share 16% → 20% over ~3 months (+4pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $-2.03 | $-1.97 | +3.0% |
| May 2026 | $-4.45 | $-3.40 | +23.6% |
| Feb 2026 | $-2.54 | $-2.11 | +16.9% |
| Nov 2025 | $-1.87 | $-0.51 | +72.7% |
| Aug 2025 | $-2.99 | $-2.13 | +28.8% |
| May 2025 | $-2.92 | $-2.52 | +13.7% |
| Feb 2025 | $-2.68 | $-2.50 | +6.7% |
| Nov 2024 | $-1.91 | $0.03 | +101.6% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.7B— | $18.9B+6.4% | $6.8B-63.7% | $3.2B-53.3% | $1.9B-39.2% |
| EPS (dil.) | $28.29— | $20.10-29.0% | $-12.34-161.4% | $-9.27n/m | $-7.26n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $13.3B— | $4.6B-65.6% | -$3.8B-183.5% | -$4.1Bn/m | -$2.1Bn/m |
| Gross Margin | 85.2% | 71.3%-13.9pp | 31.5%-39.8pp | 54.2%+22.8pp | 55.3%+1.1pp |
| Operating Margin | 75.0% | 49.9%-25.1pp | -61.9%-111.8pp | -123.3%-61.4pp | -158.1%-34.8pp |
| Net Margin | 68.8% | 44.3%-24.5pp | -68.8%-113.1pp | -111.3%-42.5pp | -145.2%-33.8pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$69.1M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 15 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
The QScore of 37 for MRNA indicates a relatively weak overall assessment, driven down by low scores in Value and Profitability, with the latter exhibiting negative returns on equity and assets, as well as a significant operating margin deficit. In contrast, the stock scores high on Momentum, with a 12-month return of 789.4% and a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average crossover. Notably, the long-term score of 25 diverges significantly from the short-term score of 50, suggesting a potential disconnect between the company's current performance and its longer-term prospects.