MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (46) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.1B— | $10.1B-17.2% | $10.4B+3.0% | $10.6B+2.7% | $11.2B+5.7% |
| EPS (dil.) | $2.53— | $-4.83-290.9% | $5.23n/m | $-1.27-124.3% | $-1.75n/m |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B— | $576M-62.4% | $1.3B+124.0% | $559M-56.7% | $323M-42.2% |
| Gross Margin | 38.9% | 35.3%-3.6pp | 40.1%+4.8pp | 37.5%-2.6pp | 30.1%-7.4pp |
| Operating Margin | 11.1% | -28.3%-39.4pp | 6.8%+35.1pp | 0.1%-6.7pp | -2.7%-2.9pp |
| Net Margin | 10.6% | -24.2%-34.8pp | 25.6%+49.8pp | -6.1%-31.7pp | -8.5%-2.4pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth below the analyst consensus of 3.7%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $724M (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $323M) · equity value $11.7B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
No recent open-market insider transactions.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Fewer than 3 analysts refreshed a price target in the last month, so no revision can be computed. Prior quarter: $24 avg across 3 analysts.
Buy-rated share 19% → 19% over ~3 months (+0pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | $0.52 | $0.58 | +12.0% |
| Jul 2026 | $0.37 | $0.56 | +52.8% |
| Apr 2026 | $0.31 | $0.36 | +15.8% |
| Feb 2026 | $0.53 | $0.44 | -17.0% |
| Oct 2025 | $0.60 | $0.69 | +15.0% |
| Jul 2025 | $0.60 | $0.59 | -1.7% |
| May 2025 | $0.48 | $0.55 | +13.8% |
| Feb 2025 | $0.53 | $0.58 | +9.8% |
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
The QScore of 46 indicates a neutral outlook for Baxter International, with the long-term and short-term scores converging. The stock scores relatively high on risk, with a low beta of 0.7, but is dragged down by poor growth metrics, including a decline in EPS growth of 37.8%. The value category also scores low, with a P/E ratio below its peers, and profitability is hindered by a negative ROE of 11.6%. Momentum is mixed, with a weak 12-month return of 0.9% but a bullish 50-day versus 200-day moving average crossover.