MEDIUM confidence: 100% data completeness, but the composite (55) sits in the indecisive 30–70 range — strong-buy and short calls require a more decisive composite. What does confidence mean?
Technical context for active traders — derived from price, the 50/200-day moving averages, the 52-week range, and recent volume. Not part of the QScore.
Fama-French 5-factor (2×3) + Momentum, monthly OLS with Newey-West errors. Bars show signed factor betas; faded bars/figures aren't statistically significant.
Dated events from the market calendar; the “also watch” items are AI-generated observations from QScoring data. Informational only — not investment advice, and dates can change.
AI classification of policy/regulatory sensitivity from the company's sector, industry, and business description. Exposure/sensitivity only — not a political opinion, a prediction of government action, or investment advice. As of 2026-07-10.
Net buyback (repurchases less issuance) ÷ market cap, plus trailing dividend yield.
Net insider -$6.5M over 180 days (0 open-market buys, 5 sells). Insider buying is the informative signal; routine selling is normal.
Short interest, days-to-cover, and institutional-ownership change require a data-plan upgrade (not yet available).
Forward-return IC, quintile spread & hit rate publish on /performance as the tracking panel accrues enough no-look-ahead history.
Avg target $380 (last qtr, 11 analysts) → $394 (last mo, 4) (+3.6%).
Buy-rated share 46% → 47% over ~3 months (+1pp).
| Quarter | Est. | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | $3.06 | $3.19 | +4.2% |
| May 2026 | $2.56 | $2.72 | +6.3% |
| Feb 2026 | $2.60 | $2.58 | -0.8% |
| Nov 2025 | $2.38 | $2.47 | +3.8% |
| Aug 2025 | $2.61 | $2.65 | +1.5% |
| May 2025 | $2.25 | $2.32 | +3.1% |
| Feb 2025 | $2.37 | $2.45 | +3.4% |
| Nov 2024 | $2.31 | $2.26 | -2.2% |
| Metric (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.9B— | $20.8B+49.9% | $23.7B+14.2% | $25.1B+5.8% | $26.2B+4.3% |
| EPS (dil.) | $3.34— | $7.24+116.8% | $10.18+40.6% | $8.33-18.2% | $9.49+13.9% |
| Free Cash Flow | $994M— | $2.0B+104.3% | $2.7B+33.8% | $2.0B-26.5% | $2.6B+30.5% |
| Gross Margin | 20.2% | 21.9%+1.7pp | 21.6%-0.3pp | 20.3%-1.3pp | 21.3%+1.0pp |
| Operating Margin | 12.6% | 16.7%+4.0pp | 16.3%-0.4pp | 15.0%-1.3pp | 15.8%+0.8pp |
| Net Margin | 7.9% | 11.4%+3.4pp | 13.0%+1.7pp | 9.5%-3.5pp | 9.9%+0.5pp |
Absolute figures with year-over-year change. Margins show the level with the change in percentage points (pp). “n/m” = not meaningful (prior ≤ 0); ⚠ marks a large percentage off a small base — read the dollar figure.
Working the DCF backward: holding the assumptions below, this is the free-cash-flow growth today's price implies over the next 10 years. It is a read on the price's embedded expectations — not a fair-value or target price.
The price implies FCF growth above the analyst consensus of 4.0%/yr (revenue basis).
Base free cash flow $2.4B (avg FY2023–FY2025; latest year $2.6B) · equity value $104.5B · levered FCF discounted at the cost of equity. Reverse DCF is illustrative, not advice.
The QScore of 55 for Marriott International indicates a neutral outlook, with the short-term score of 62 diverging significantly from the long-term score of 47. The stock scores high on momentum, driven by a 52.7% return over the past year, and exhibits strong risk characteristics with a beta of 1.2. However, it trades at a premium, with a P/E of 41.7, which weighs on its value score, and its profitability is a concern, with an ROE of -66.7%.